Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 78.4%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 22, 24, 1:22 PM UTCDec 31, 99, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market will resolve YES if the Sloth Bear is extinct in 2100.
- It will resolve NO if it is not extinct in 2100.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sloth_bear
- IUCN red list of threatened species
- https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/13143/166519315
- Please help trading this market and posting news about the species in the comments, in order to get the most accurate assessment of its extinction risk.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.0pt94%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+15.3pt47%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $256.6K
- 24h Vol
- $140.5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2032+44.0pt92%
- Before 2028+44.0pt59%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
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- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
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- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the Sloth Bear (Melursus ursinus) become extinct in the current century??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the Sloth Bear (Melursus ursinus) become extinct in the current century? resolve?
- Will the Sloth Bear (Melursus ursinus) become extinct in the current century? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2099.
- How is Will the Sloth Bear (Melursus ursinus) become extinct in the current century? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve YES if the Sloth Bear is extinct in 2100.