Current community forecast
N = 100 85.1%-8.8ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
87
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-6.3 pts
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jun 2, 25, 8:08 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Rules
Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has added answer options for the following values of N:
- Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has provided the following definitions for how the market will be resolved:
- A robotaxi service is defined as one where a user can request a ride on-demand, similar to Uber or Lyft.
- It will still count if riders must first join a waitlist.
- The fleet size will be determined by the total number of Teslas used for an autonomous ride by someone other than the owner.
- A vehicle is considered "actively operating" if it provides at least one such ride within any given week.
Open markets
AI
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt93%
- Before Dec 1, 2026+4.0pt92%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+3.0pt92%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
- 24h Vol
- $185.5K
GEMINIBTC price on August 21
- $73,000 or above99%
- $74,500 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
+36 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $198K
- 24h Vol
- $182.1K
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.9pt92%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-1.1pt97%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
- December 31,89%
- October 31,+2.0pt83%
- October 15,-16.0pt53%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt68.9%
- Grok-1.7pt10.7%
- ChatGPT-3.6pt8.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $9.2M
- Best AI this week
- Next Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- BMW Championship Winner
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- GPT-6 released by which date?
- XRP price on August 21
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- BTC price on August 31
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- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices N = 100 at 85% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026? resolve?
- Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Tesla have a fleet of at least N robotaxis actively operating by the end of 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Update 2025-06-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has added answer options for the following values of N: