Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.1%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleJun 4, 25, 9:32 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market predicts whether sales to fleet operators will account for more than 30% of Tesla's total vehicle sales by the end of 2027.
- Currently, Tesla's sales are primarily to individual consumers.
- Source Resolution will be based on Tesla's official sales data for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2027.
- Update 2026-03-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cybercabs and other vehicles transferred to Tesla's robotaxi division do not count as fleet sales for the purposes of this market's resolution.
Open markets
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- $75,000 or above99%
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+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $844.6K
- 24h Vol
- $817.6K
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- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
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+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
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- 180-199+5.0pt27.4%
- 200-219+5.0pt22.6%
- 160-179-4.0pt20.6%
+23 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Tesla's fleet sales constitute over 30% of total vehicle sales by December 31, 2027?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Tesla's fleet sales constitute over 30% of total vehicle sales by December 31, 2027 resolve?
- Tesla's fleet sales constitute over 30% of total vehicle sales by December 31, 2027 is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Tesla's fleet sales constitute over 30% of total vehicle sales by December 31, 2027 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market predicts whether sales to fleet operators will account for more than 30% of Tesla's total vehicle sales by the end of 2027.