Current community forecast
No 95.8%
Forecasters
33
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleDec 3, 23, 11:32 AM UTCOct 2, 26, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Futuur[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich Starship will be the first to be caught?
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KalshiRules
Refers to upper stage only.
- Successfully caught means remains in one piece allowing inspection.
- It does not have to be capable of reflight, a few serious scratches would be ok as vehicle could be inspected.
- Will extend deadline until one occurs.
- If neither is going to happen resolves na.
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+3 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 96% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught? resolve?
- Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught? is scheduled to resolve on October 2, 2026.
- How is Will Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Refers to upper stage only.