Current community forecast
Ship 42 33.3%+0.5ptLeader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
23
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.7 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Jul 1, 25, 9:24 PM UTCOct 31, 26, 9:12 PM UTC
Trends
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship Ship 42 be the first to fly to orbit and be caught by the tower?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship refuel in orbit before Starship is successfully caught?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiSpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market will resolve to the first SpaceX Starship to successfully land on the catch arms (chopsticks) of a launch tower.
- The vehicle must come to rest in one piece on the chopsticks, but any following event, including destruction, will not affect the resolution.
- S37 and S38 are the final remaining Block 2 ships.
- S39 is the first Block 3 ship.
- Newer ships may be added as needed.
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which Starship will be the first to be caught??
- Manifold Markets prices Ship 42 at 33% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Which Starship will be the first to be caught? resolve?
- Which Starship will be the first to be caught? is scheduled to resolve on October 31, 2026.
- How is Which Starship will be the first to be caught? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria