Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 95.2%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleApr 4, 24, 6:28 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will someone die aboard a SpaceX rocket before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsMTV Video Music Awards 2026: Who will perform
KalshiWho Will Perform at Harry Styles’ MSG Residency?
KalshiWho will perform at The Victoria's Secret Fashion Show 2026?
KalshiWill SpaceX perform Falcon 9 commercial rocket launches after 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill China land someone on the moon on this year?
Manifold MarketsRules
@/strutheo/will-someone-perform-a-wedding-cere-e05fcf443bd3
- There has been only one marriage ceremony performed in space.
- In August, 2003, Russian cosmonaut Yuri Malenchenko married his fiancée Yekaterina Dmitriyeva while he was part of the crew of ISS Expedition 7
Open markets
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will someone perform a wedding ceremony on the moon by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will someone perform a wedding ceremony on the moon by the end of 2030? resolve?
- Will someone perform a wedding ceremony on the moon by the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Will someone perform a wedding ceremony on the moon by the end of 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: @/strutheo/will-someone-perform-a-wedding-cere-e05fcf443bd3