Current community forecast
2030 33.8%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
23
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 10, 24, 5:29 PM UTCDec 30, 33, 7:30 PM UTC
Trends
0.5%
0.4%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Russia land someone on the moon?
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Manifold MarketsWill China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?
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PolymarketXi Jinping out before 2027?
PolymarketHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
PolymarketRules
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Lunar_Exploration_Program#:~:text=On%2012%20July%202023%2C%20at,Moon%20by%20the%20year%202030.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will China land someone on the moon on this year??
- Manifold Markets prices 2030 at 34% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will China land someone on the moon on this year? resolve?
- Will China land someone on the moon on this year? is scheduled to resolve on December 30, 2033.
- How is Will China land someone on the moon on this year? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_Lunar_Exploration_Program#:~:text=On%2012%20July%202023%2C%20at,Moon%20by%20the%20year%202030.