Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastThe world population exceeds 8.5 billion 82.9%+32.9ptLeader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+32.9 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleOct 11, 26, 8:34 AM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves each option independently to YES if the specified event occurs or condition is met between January 1, 2030, and December 31, 2039, and NO otherwise.
- Standard resolutions will be determined using official data from recognized international institutions, government bodies, or reputable news reporting.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if the World Health Organization (WHO) formally declares a global pandemic or Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) for a pathogen that leads to widespread global travel restrictions or global reported mortality exceeding 1 million deaths during the 2030s.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if major independent governance tracking organizations (e.g., Freedom House or the V-Dem Institute) classify all sovereign nations worldwide as non-democratic or authoritarian.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if major AI research organizations or professional bodies (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, or AAAI) formally announce or reach scientific consensus that a system meets an established operational definition of AGI.