What are the current odds for Will Sam Altman be considered a grifter by 2030??

Manifold Markets prices YES at 51.5% as of October 28, 2026.

How is Will Sam Altman be considered a grifter by 2030? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: On the 1st of January 2030, a poll will be launched with the question: "Is Sam Altman a grifter?"

One-OffAI Tech3y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 51.5%

Forecasters

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

7d Change

0.0 pts

Market data

Updated 15 hours ago

Stale

Apr 19, 24, 1:50 PM UTCFeb 1, 30, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

On the 1st of January 2030, a poll will be launched with the question: "Is Sam Altman a grifter?"

If the word "grifter" falls out of popular use by that time, the question will read: "Is Sam Altman a grifter (i.e. snake oil salesman, scam artist)"?
The poll will be open for 1 month; if the majority of votes say "YES", this question will resolve to "YES", if not, it will resolve to "NO".