Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (58.6%)
Resolved: Aug 11, 2026, 4:32 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecastYes 58.6%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 days ago
StaleMay 18, 26, 9:14 PMAug 11, 26, 4:32 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes58.6%
No41.4%
58.6%
41.4%
Rules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve YES if, at any time before the close date, the Russian Federation has de facto control of the entirety of central Konstantinovka, Donetsk Oblast.
- For the purpose of this market, this refers to the area shaded yellow in the image below:
- [image]This market will resolve NO if any part of this area is contested or controlled by Ukraine until the close date.
- For the duration of the war, any YES or NO resolution must be supported by a majority of the following mappers:
- UAControlMap
