Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 74.7%
Forecasters
177
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingOct 3, 23, 3:22 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsSports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?
PolymarketLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if at least one prediction market platform has more than 1 million daily active users by 2028.
- Also resolves YES if an online sports betting platform has those engagement numbers AND has a substainstial component that is about politics, science, and other real-world events.
- So for example, I don't think that Betfair currently counts but it might in the future.