Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMay 16, 25, 7:23 PM UTCDec 30, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text Nick Bostrom before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Pope Leo XIV visit first the U.S. or Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsWill Taylor Swift meet with Pope Leo XIV before 2027?
KalshiWill Trump be excommunicated by Pope Leo XIV in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump meet with Pope Leo in 2026?
PredictItWhat countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pope Leo XIV explicitly mentions CAIS Statement on AI Risk in any official papal document, speech, or publication.
- The document has to be authored or signed off by the pope.
- The market will resolve to "No" if there is no such mention by the end of 2027.
- Reliable sources for verification include official Vatican publications: https://www.vatican.va https://press.vatican.va
- As an example of citation see the following text which Pope Francis cites the famous Dartmouth proposal: https://www.vatican.va/roman_curia/congregations/cfaith/documents/rc_ddf_doc_20250128_antiqua-et-nova_en.html
Open markets
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt68.3%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt13.5%
- Gemini+1.6pt10.6%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11.5M
- 24h Vol
- $100.2K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-11.0pt69%
- December 15,-13.5pt65%
- November 30,-11.0pt50%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 5.6%+18.0pt99%
- Above 2.7%99%
- Above 4.5%99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $262.3K
- 24h Vol
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 24.3%+13.0pt99%
- Above 24.7%+30.0pt99%
- Above 23.6%+1.0pt99%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- $2.0–$2.25T+0.1pt25.3%
- $2.25–$2.5T-5.0pt20%
- $1.75–$2.0T-3.0pt16.8%
+7 more outcomes
- Anthropic market share this week
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
- Anthropic lab leak by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 88% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028? resolve?
- Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028? is scheduled to resolve on December 30, 2027.
- How is Will Pope Leo XIV cite in his text the CAIS Statement on AI Risk before 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria