Will "Please Donate to CAIP (Post 1 of 6 on AI Gove..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will "Please Donate to CAIP (Post 1 of 6 on AI Gove..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??

Manifold Markets prices No at 87.8% as of October 26, 2026.

When does Will "Please Donate to CAIP (Post 1 of 6 on AI Gove..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? resolve?

Will "Please Donate to CAIP (Post 1 of 6 on AI Gove..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? is scheduled to resolve on February 1, 2027.

How is Will "Please Donate to CAIP (Post 1 of 6 on AI Gove..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+11.0pt94%
• December 15,+9.5pt91%
• November 30,+28.5pt89%

+15 more outcomes

Total Vol

$5.9M

24h Vol

$356.1K

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt95.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+4.0pt95%
• Before Jan 1, 2027+14.0pt

KALSHI

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Kansas?

• Tax on Tips / Tax on Overtime+19.0pt99.5%
• America First+61.0pt99.5%
• American Dream+65.0pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T28.6%
• $2.0–$2.25T+4.2pt22.9%
• $1.5–$1.75T-2.3pt16.2%

+7 more outcomes

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+3.9pt60%
• Gemini-1.0pt30.1%
• ChatGPT-0.3pt

POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+4.0pt57%
• Google-1.0pt33%
• OpenAI+0.2pt6%

+12 more outcomes

• GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
• OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
• Which company has the best AI model end of October?
• Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
• What will Anthropic's public ticker be?
• Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
• In which month will Anthropic IPO?
• Best AI this week
• What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
• Anthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?