Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 86%
No 86%Forecasters
47
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Feb 3, 25, 1:14 AM UTCJun 16, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves N/A if there is no o4 model. o4 is defined as any compute setting on the o4 model.
- Something like deepresearch (which is based on o3/o4) would also resolve yes.
- Update 2025-04-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): o4 mini Exclusion Clarification
- o4 is defined as any compute setting on the o4 model.
- o4 mini is explicitly excluded from being considered as o4.