Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes (99%)
Resolved: Oct 8, 2026, 12:30 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Yes
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 8, 2026, 9:51 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes99%
No1%
Won
Lost
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Update 2026-10-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To resolve YES, a result must be broken beyond repair.
- Minor errors that are corrected without throwing out the entire result do not count as a retraction.
- OpenAI must acknowledge the failure explicitly or implicitly (such as removing the solution from GitHub).