Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 60.6%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleMar 21, 25, 3:13 AM UTCDec 31, 44, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will nuclear fusion be achieved?
KalshiWill Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear fusion reaction be maintained continuously for >24hrs before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill commercial nuclear fusion exist in April of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- “Yes” Resolution: The market resolves to Yes if before January 1st 2045, at least one nuclear fusion facility meets these requirements:
- The facility must demonstrate a net energy gain, producing more electrical energy than the total energy required to sustain and operate the reactor
- Is connected to a power grid (so that homes, businesses, or other customers use this electricity).
- Maintains a net electrical output of at least 1 megawatt to the grid.
- Operates under the above conditions for a sustained period of at least 30 consecutive days.
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.0pt94%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+15.3pt47%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $256.6K
- 24h Vol
- $140.5K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028-1.0pt12%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2032+44.0pt92%
- Before 2028+44.0pt59%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 more outcomes
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2045??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 61% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2045? resolve?
- Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2045? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2044.
- How is Will Nuclear Fusion supply power to an electric grid before 2045? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria