Current community forecast
No 50.1%
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6
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Updated 10 hours ago
StaleNov 19, 23, 1:09 AM UTCJan 1, 51, 7:59 AM UTC
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Rules
Background: Inspired by Neal Stephenson's novel "The Diamond Age" and the concepts presented by technological visionaries like Eric Drexler and Ralph Merkle, this question explores the possibility of a future where nanotechnology has advanced to a point where manipulating individual atoms, particularly carbon, is feasible.
- In such a scenario, it becomes possible to assemble diamond structures, or diamondoids, which could revolutionize material science and construction.
- The term "Diamond Age" refers to an era where diamond becomes a central technological material, similar to how the Stone, Bronze, and Iron Ages were defined.
- This potential shift to diamond-based materials could lead to their use in constructing large-scale structures such as office buildings, apartment buildings, airports, and train stations, due to diamond's strength, lightness, and stiffness.
- Resolution Criteria: This market will resolve as 'Yes' if, by December 31, 2050, there is widespread use of diamond and diamondoid materials in the construction of large-scale structures such as office buildings, apartment buildings, airports, and train stations. 'Widespread use' is defined as the adoption of these materials in at least five major cities across three different continents for the construction of significant public or commercial structures.
- This must be evidenced by credible media reports, scientific publications, or announcements from major construction or architectural firms.
