Current community forecast
No 98.3%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleDec 16, 25, 6:04 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Stoke Space propulsively land and refly a second stage?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starship fly in space with a human on board?
Manifold MarketsBy when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWill Starship successfully deploy its payload during Flight 15?
Manifold MarketsWill a human walk on Mars before the end of 2045?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- The market resolves YES if Stoke Space successfully launches a rocket to space (reaching at least 100 km altitude) by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official confirmation from Stoke Space, FAA records, or credible space industry sources.
- The market resolves NO if no spaceflight is achieved by the deadline.
- Stoke Space Technologies is an American space launch company based in Kent, Washington, founded by former Blue Origin and SpaceX employees.
- Nova is a fully reusable medium-lift launch vehicle with an expected payload capacity of 3 tons to low Earth orbit, with the first stage performing a return-to-launch-site landing.
