Current community forecast
2030/01/01 88.9%Leader of 15 outcomes
2030/01/01 88.9%Forecasters
36
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleJan 3, 24, 10:53 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Starship fly in space with a human on board?
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Manifold MarketsWill the SuperHeavy Booster (re-) fly without refurbishment by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of November?
PolymarketRules
Each date resolves YES if a Starship that had flown to space (>100km altitude) returns to Earth in one piece, and then flies to space again, before that date, using local time at the launch site.
- Inspired by this market by the venerable @chrisjbillington, but with more dates https://manifold.markets/chrisjbillington/first-reflight-of-a-spaceflown-star
- Edit 1/8/2024: Changed responses to YYYY/MM/DD for easier sorting
