Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 12:52 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastBefore 2030 61.1%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
33
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-9.3 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 30, 24, 2:21 PM UTCJan 1, 30, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship fly intercontinental by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship reach space in 2023? x Will a human land on the moon by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 26, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiRules
The market will resolve positively as soon a live human either successfully launches on a SpaceX Starship to space, or enters a Starship while in space (anywhere more than 100 km from Earth surface).
- It will still count if the Starship fails in some way, as long as it happens after it has reached space.
- I do not bet on my own questions.
- Similar question about launch and landing:
- @/OlegEterevsky/when-will-starship-first-launch-or
- My other questions about Starship milestones:
