Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Starship reaches space in 2023 AND No human lands on the Moon by 2028 96.6%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleOct 31, 23, 7:39 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.2%
0.1%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a human land on the moon before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a human land on the moon by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a human land on the moon by this [YEAR]?
Manifold MarketsWill a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
KalshiWill Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurRules
This is a "market for markets".
- Artemis III is the only crewed Moon landing scheduled for before 2028, but there have been fears that if Starship is delayed the mission may not fly.
- The answer will be chosen according to the resolution of these two markets:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-starship-reach-space-in-2023)(https://manifold.markets/embed/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20)
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Starship reach space in 2023? x Will a human land on the moon by 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices Starship reaches space in 2023 AND No human lands on the Moon by 2028 at 97% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Starship reach space in 2023? x Will a human land on the moon by 2028? resolve?
- Will Starship reach space in 2023? x Will a human land on the moon by 2028? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will Starship reach space in 2023? x Will a human land on the moon by 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This is a "market for markets".