Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:11 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
Starship reaches space in 2023 AND No human lands on the Moon by 2028 96.6%Leader of 4 outcomes
Starship reaches space in 2023 AND No human lands on the Moon by 2028 96.6%Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleOct 31, 23, 7:39 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 10:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will a human land on the moon before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a human land on the moon by 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a human land on the moon by this [YEAR]?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a human land on the moon Io?
Manifold MarketsWill a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
KalshiWill Blue Origin land on the moon before SpaceX?
KalshiRules
This is a "market for markets".
- Artemis III is the only crewed Moon landing scheduled for before 2028, but there have been fears that if Starship is delayed the mission may not fly.
- The answer will be chosen according to the resolution of these two markets:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/jack/will-starship-reach-space-in-2023)(https://manifold.markets/embed/StanPinsent/will-a-human-land-on-the-moon-by-20)
