Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 62.4%
Forecasters
3
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleFeb 19, 26, 10:47 PM UTCMar 31, 31, 4:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
This market estimates McArthur River's 2030 production (100% basis).
- The market settles on March 31, 2031 (3 months after year-end to allow for quarterly reporting).
- At settlement, an LLM will be asked to estimate McArthur River's production (100% basis) for 2030 using the trailing 15-month window excluding the last 3 months.
- Measurement window: January 1, 2030 through December 31, 2030
- YES if: 2030 production (100% basis) ≥24.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)
- NO if: 2030 production (100% basis) <24.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will McArthur River 2030 production (100% basis) exceed 24.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 62% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will McArthur River 2030 production (100% basis) exceed 24.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)? resolve?
- Will McArthur River 2030 production (100% basis) exceed 24.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)? is scheduled to resolve on March 31, 2031.
- How is Will McArthur River 2030 production (100% basis) exceed 24.0M lbs U3O8 (100% basis)? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market estimates McArthur River's 2030 production (100% basis).