Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 86.7%
Forecasters
30
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleNov 18, 22, 6:05 PM UTCDec 18, 27, 6:04 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?
KalshiElon Musk Giving Shares to the Public (props)
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman hold super-voting OpenAI shares at IPO?
KalshiWill there be a >0 value liquidity event for me, a former Consensys Software Inc. employee, on my shares of the company?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
When we raised our seed round, FTX/Alameda was our largest investor, through the FTX Future Fund regranting program (see: https://manifoldmarkets.notion.site/Manifold-Finances-0f9a14a16afe4375b67e21471ce456b0).
- Now that they're undergoing bankruptcy proceedings, will it be possible for us to repurchase our own stock?
- Specifically, they bought two SAFEs: 250k @10M postmoney, and 750k @ 15M post money; totaling 7.5% of the company if we are valued at 15m or more.
- This market resolves YES if Manifold buy back the shares; NO if someone else purchases them or the shares have not been moved in about 5 years.