Will I still think ergocidity economics is crankery at the end of March 2027?
One-OffMacro & Economy5moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 97%
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Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 17, 26, 6:52 AM UTCMar 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
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Presently I think ergocidity economics (Ole Peters's theory about how looking at the behavior over time of single rollouts of a random process is better than textbook expected utility calculations over the distribution of all possible rollouts) is probably crankery.
- Other mathematically inclined people, including ones I have some reason to respect, feel differently.
- This market is to help me decide whether to be louder in public about this view and to provide a prize of valuable internet points to anyone who talks me around within a year.
- I intend to resolve YES or NO (currently I intend to resolve YES) but may resolve PROB if I feel nontrivially unsure.
- The last time I spent much brainpower on Ole Peters: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/gptXmhJxFiEwuPN98/meetup-notes-ole-peters-on-ergodicity#Paper__The_time_resolution_of_the_St_Petersburg_Paradox