Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 75.1%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleDec 16, 24, 2:36 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will mail-order mifepristone access be restricted nationwide?
KalshiWill estradiol be available over-the-counter in the US before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic lab leak by which date?
PolymarketHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketMeasles cases in 2026?
KalshiWill a human walk on the Moon again before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
I currently reside in Texas and rely on exogenous estradiol for hormonal therapy.
- This market will resolve YES if, at any point before 2027, it becomes impractical for me to obtain estradiol for at least one month.
- It will resolve N/A if I move to a different state before 2027 or if Texas ceases to exist.
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-5.0pt11%
- December 31, 2026-4.0pt3%
- Total Vol
- $22.6K
- 24h Vol
- $18.6K
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.2pt97%
- Yes-0.2pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.3M
- 24h Vol
- $5.6K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400098%
- Above 6000+9.0pt69%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $4.7K
KALSHIHow many tuberculosis cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- Above 8k+9.0pt97%
- Above 7k89%
- Above 9k81%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETMeasles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- ↑500+0.1pt100%
- ↑1k+0.1pt100%
- ↑2k+0.2pt100%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No92%
- Yes+3.0pt8%
- Total Vol
- $759.8K
- 24h Vol
- $932.6
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- Which countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
- How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?
- FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- New pandemic in 2026?
- Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will I lose access to estradiol before 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 20, 2026.
- When does Will I lose access to estradiol before 2027? resolve?
- Will I lose access to estradiol before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will I lose access to estradiol before 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: I currently reside in Texas and rely on exogenous estradiol for hormonal therapy.