Will human intelligence augmentation / embryo selection get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
Health & MedicineOne-Off3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 52.1%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleOct 31, 23, 6:26 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that support human-intelligence-augmentation projects, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.
- Some topics that I will count as human-intelligence augmentation: - nootropics - brain-computer interfaces (including AI cyborgism through BCIs) - research towards human genome synthesis, cloning, or human-germline CRISPR editing - research towards iterated embryo selection (note that OpenPhil already funds a lot of this!) or advocacy for greater adoption of IVF / embryo selection.
- Some stuff that will not count: - personalized AI assistants that only "augment intelligence" in essentially the same way smartphones, search engines, note-taking apps, etc, already do. - biology / genetic engineering research that doesn't seem specifically aimed at the above (eg, bio research that would be just as useful for improving crop yields, developing new medicines, or protecting against pandemics, as it would for boosting intelligence)
- "EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel.
- This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.
- For markets about other cause-area-candidates (like cryonics and space governance!), check out the "New EA Cause Area?" tag!
