Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 80%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 26, 6:51 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will https://vivarium.sh/ still exist by EOY2028
Manifold MarketsWill https://absentia.bio/ still exist by EOY2031
Manifold MarketsWill Tumblr still exist by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the website located at https://clawinstitute.aiscientist.tools/ is accessible and returns a standard HTTP 200 OK status code on December 31, 2026.
- If the website is inaccessible, redirects to a different domain, or returns an error status code (e.g., 404, 500) on that date, the market resolves to NO.
- This market concerns the continued operation of the specific web domain clawinstitute.aiscientist.tools.
- As of April 2026, little public information is available regarding the long-term hosting or organizational status of this specific URL.
- Traders should consider the typical volatility of experimental or niche web projects and the potential for domain expiration or service discontinuation over the remainder of the 2026 calendar year.
Open markets
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $157.2K
- 24h Vol
- $119.4K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+10.0pt60%
- 2027+2.0pt31.4%
- 2026+2.0pt8.6%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.7pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $10.6M
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-4.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $377.7K
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.5pt23%
+2 more outcomes
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will https://clawinstitute.aiscientist.tools/ still exist by EOY2026??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will https://clawinstitute.aiscientist.tools/ still exist by EOY2026? resolve?
- Will https://clawinstitute.aiscientist.tools/ still exist by EOY2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will https://clawinstitute.aiscientist.tools/ still exist by EOY2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria