Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 83.9%
Forecasters
55
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Dec 18, 25, 3:23 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- Valve has not officially announced that a new Half-Life game is in development.
- This market resolves YES if Valve makes an official public announcement of Half-Life 3 (or any Half-Life sequel/spinoff with a number or subtitle) at any point during 2026.
- The announcement must come directly from Valve through official channels (press release, social media, website, press conference, or major gaming event presentation).
- Rumors, leaks, datamined code, or third-party speculation do not count.
- The market resolves NO if no such official announcement occurs by December 31, 2026.
