PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 1, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
No 81%+3.5pt
Market quality
38 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$191
Liquidity
$633.6
Low liquidityBid / Ask
16.0% / 22.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadComments
33
7d Change
+5.5 pts
Market data
Updated 55 minutes ago
LaggingNov 11, 25, 9:40 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- The announcement of the creation of any expansion or sequel not explicitly named "Half-Life 3" (e.g., Half-Life: Alyx, Half-Life 2: Episode One) will not be sufficient to qualify this market toward a "Yes" resolution.
- The game must have the words "Half-Life 3" in the title to qualify.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from Valve or a consensus of credible sources.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET# of views of Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look on week 1?
- <20M+2.0pt73%
- 20-22M-4.0pt25%
- 22-24M-0.8pt2%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $519.8K
- 24h Vol
- $221.5K
KALSHIOnslaught · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 50+4.0pt99%
- Above 45+3.0pt99%
- Above 55+1.0pt97%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $181.5K
POLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 940 - 950m+12.0pt59.8%
- <940m+1.5pt20.6%
- 950 - 960m-8.0pt18.6%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will be the top US Netflix movie this week?
- Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look+10.3pt98%
- The Whisper Man (2026)-11.9pt1%
- Facing El Chapo+0.1pt1%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIGrand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- Before January 202898%
- Before July 202797%
- Before 2027+1.0pt93%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $3.1M
- 24h Vol
- $44.4K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+2.0pt22.7%
- Dee Valladares-3.0pt16.5%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt10.3%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Dancing with the Stars S35: Contestants
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Oscar Winner: Best Actor
- Highest grossing movie in 2026?
- Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
- Fuerza Regida: Highest daily view count (August 31, 2026 - September 6, 2026)
- Next James Bond actor?
- Next James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- The Game Awards: 2026 Game of the Year
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 81% as of September 1, 2026.
- When does Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? resolve?
- Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Half-Life 3 be announced before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Valve publicly and explicitly announces that Half-Life 3 is in production by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.