Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Yes, a higher tier introduced and added to the current Sol/Terra/Luna naming somehow (97.2%)
Resolved: Sep 29, 2026, 1:26 AM
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 29, 2026, 5:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes, a higher tier introduced with a change in naming scheme0.6%
Yes, a higher tier introduced and added to the current Sol/Terra/Luna naming somehow97.2%
No, Sol remains the highest tier and has similar speed and pricing as 5.6 (the status quo answer)1.3%
No, but one or more models in existing tiers CLEARLY become bigger (as reflected by their speed and pricing or other strong signals)0.8%
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
In an industry with already poor average naming track record, OpenAI is still unrivaled in naming their models without any consideration for common sense, user experience, or marketing foresight.
- Now, with GPT-6 release allegedly only weeks away, many are speculating that the new flagship will be in a size category of its own akin to Anthropic's Mythos/Fable.
- But then how does it fit into the neat current Sol/Terra/Luna naming scheme? Would a potential higher tier take on the name of some bigger star (Antares?) or the entire Milky Way galaxy ("Galaxias"?)? So many questions!
- Note on the last option: in the absence of direct testimonials from Sam & Co, I will go by consensus opinion of industry analysts and my best informed judgment; resolution might be delayed in this case or may have to rely on a separate poll or market intended to gauge opinions on the matter.
- EDIT 2026-07-31: If the current tier structure changes with a release in the 5.x family before GPT-6 is announced, this still qualifies for one of the two YES options.
- Update 2026-08-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * If Astra is released in the 5.x family and retains the name "Astra" separate from Sol and other tiers, it will resolve as an addition to the existing naming scheme (Option #2).