Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 82.4%
Forecasters
8
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleJan 7, 26, 4:56 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will global peak oil production occur before 2026?
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Manifold MarketsTexas crude oil production in 2026
KalshiWill Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?
PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if total world oil production declines in 2027 and 2028 from a peak reached during or before the year 2026, AND there is a majority consensus among world energy economics experts that peak oil was likely reached in or before 2026.
- Resolves NO if world total oil production is reported to be above 2026 levels in any of the two years following.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
- "Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which production will begin an irreversible decline.
- It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price."
- [image]from: https://yearbook.enerdata.net/crude-oil/world-production-statistics.html