Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 59%
Forecasters
29
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 54 minutes ago
LaggingJan 20, 24, 2:23 AM UTCJan 2, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if total world oil production is lower in 2029 and 2030 from a peak in or before the year 2028, AND there is a majority consensus among world energy economics experts that peak oil was likely reached in or before 2028.
- Resolves NO if world total oil production is clearly above 2028 levels in 2029 or 2030.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
- "Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which production will begin an irreversible decline.
- It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price."
- [image]from: https://yearbook.enerdata.net/crude-oil/world-production-statistics.html
