What are the current odds for Will global peak oil production occur before 2028??

Manifold Markets prices No at 60.2% as of October 27, 2026.

Will global peak oil production occur before 2028?

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Current community forecast

No 60.2%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Forecast

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Updated 8 hours ago

Stale

Jan 13, 26, 2:48 PM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC

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Outcome24hChance

Rules

"Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which production will begin an irreversible decline.

It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price."
from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
Resolves YES if total world oil production in 2028 and 2029 are below a peak reached during or before the year 2027, AND there is a majority consensus among energy economy experts that peak oil was likely reached in or before 2027.
Resolves NO if world total oil production is reported to be above 2027 levels in any of the two years following.
[image]from: https://yearbook.enerdata.net/crude-oil/world-production-statistics.html