Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Yes 74.9%
Yes 74.9%Forecasters
36
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 19 hours ago
StaleJan 17, 24, 1:38 AM UTCJan 2, 33, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if total world oil production declines in 2031 and 2032 from a peak in or before the year 2030, AND there is a majority consensus among world energy economics experts that peak oil was likely reached in or before 2030.
- Resolves NO if world total oil production is clearly above 2030 levels in 2031 or 2032.
- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil
- "Peak oil is the point in time when the maximum rate of global oil production is reached, after which production will begin an irreversible decline.
- It is related to the distinct concept of oil depletion; while global petroleum reserves are finite, the limiting factor is not whether the oil exists but whether it can be extracted economically at a given price."
- [image]from: https://yearbook.enerdata.net/crude-oil/world-production-statistics.html
