Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes, GenAI will become a permanent part of our daily lives permanently 76.4%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleOct 11, 26, 8:38 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolution criteria
- Each option in this market resolves independently to YES or NO based on market conditions established before or during the 2030s:
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if major mainstream consumer operating systems (e.g., Windows, macOS, iOS, Android) and standard consumer software suites natively embed generative AI tools into default user workflows by December 31, 2029.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if daily generative AI usage remains concentrated among specialized technical, creative, or enterprise power-users rather than broad consumer adoption by December 31, 2029.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if generative AI maintains sustained, widespread consumer usage into standard daily routines through December 31, 2029.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if generative AI systems undergo systemic abandonment, regulatory bans, or technological obsolescence between January 1, 2030, and December 31, 2039.
