Current community forecast
Yes 86.6%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleFeb 3, 26, 5:03 AM UTCDec 31, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if the combined mass of all Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches to orbit in 2027 exceeds the combined mass of all Starship launches to orbit in 2027.
- It resolves NO if Starship launches more total mass to orbit than Falcon 9/Heavy combined.
- Mass is measured as the actual payload delivered to orbit, not including rocket stages or fairings such as the starship vehicle.
Open markets
TechKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-23.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-9.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $682.4K
- 24h Vol
- $661.4K
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors-3.0pt60.4%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons+3.0pt39.6%
- Total Vol
- $654.7K
- 24h Vol
- $626.1K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+43.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $504.6K
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-2.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-45.0pt1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $69,500 or above98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3M
- 24h Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+7.0pt34.3%
- 160-179+2.0pt23.8%
- 200-219-1.0pt19.1%
+23 more outcomes
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Falcon 9/FH Launch More Mass to Orbit than Starship in 2027??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Falcon 9/FH Launch More Mass to Orbit than Starship in 2027? resolve?
- Will Falcon 9/FH Launch More Mass to Orbit than Starship in 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2027.
- How is Will Falcon 9/FH Launch More Mass to Orbit than Starship in 2027? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria