Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 87.1%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleJul 3, 24, 8:12 PM UTCJan 1, 51, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2031?
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FutuurWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiRules
Definition of Extraterrestrial Civilization
- For the purposes of this market, an "extraterrestrial civilization" is defined as any organized society or community originating from outside Earth that displays one or more of the following characteristics:
- Technological Artifacts: Objects or signals clearly created by non-human intelligence, such as advanced machinery, spacecraft, or artificial structures.
- Communication Signals: Radio, laser, or other forms of communication that unmistakably originate from an intelligent source.
- Biological Evidence: Life forms or biological signatures that demonstrate complex, organized life processes indicative of a developed society.
- Astrosocial Phenomena: Observable large-scale alterations or structures within a star system or galaxy that suggest the presence of an advanced society, such as Dyson spheres or large space habitats.
Open markets
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-1.8pt9%
- Google2%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.9K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Total Vol
- $53.1K
- 24h Vol
- $53.1K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-16.0pt19%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 2027-0.5pt67%
- June 30, 2027-0.5pt53%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2050??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2050? resolve?
- Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2050? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2051.
- How is Will evidence of an extraterrestrial civilization be discovered by the year 2050? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Definition of Extraterrestrial Civilization