Current community forecast
No 94%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMar 28, 24, 8:03 AM UTCMar 29, 61, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Elon Musk spend a month in outer space?
Manifold MarketsWill Jeff Bezos spend a month in outer space?
Manifold MarketsWill Jeff Bezos spend a week in outer space?
Manifold MarketsWill the US exit the Outer Space Treaty?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
PolymarketRules
The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until either of the criteria have been met.
- If Elon Musk spends 365 days consecutively above the Karmen Line (100 km altitude), then this market resolves YES.
- If he dies before this happens, this market resolves NO.
- For purposes of this market, “Elon Musk” is only Elon Reeve Musk, former chairman of Tesla, born on June 28, 1971.
- I will not bet in this market.
- Related markets: @/jks/will-elon-musk-spend-a-day-in-outer @/jks/will-elon-musk-spend-a-week-in-oute @/jks/will-elon-musk-spend-a-month-in-out @/jks/will-elon-musk-spend-a-year-in-oute (this market)
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
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- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Elon Musk spend a year in outer space??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 94% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Elon Musk spend a year in outer space? resolve?
- Will Elon Musk spend a year in outer space? is scheduled to resolve on March 29, 2061.
- How is Will Elon Musk spend a year in outer space? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until either of the criteria have been met.