Current community forecast
No 90%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMar 28, 24, 8:03 AM UTCMar 29, 61, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Elon Musk spend a month in outer space?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk spend a day in outer space?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk spend a week in outer space?
Manifold MarketsWill Jeff Bezos spend a month in outer space?
Manifold MarketsWill the US exit the Outer Space Treaty?
KalshiWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiRules
The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until either of the criteria have been met.
- If Elon Musk spends 365 days consecutively above the Karmen Line (100 km altitude), then this market resolves YES.
- If he dies before this happens, this market resolves NO.
- For purposes of this market, “Elon Musk” is only Elon Reeve Musk, former chairman of Tesla, born on June 28, 1971.
- I will not bet in this market.
- Related markets: @/jks/will-elon-musk-spend-a-day-in-outer @/jks/will-elon-musk-spend-a-week-in-oute @/jks/will-elon-musk-spend-a-month-in-out @/jks/will-elon-musk-spend-a-year-in-oute (this market)
