Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.5%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleMar 28, 24, 7:38 AM UTCMar 29, 54, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Jeff Bezos spend a week in outer space?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk spend a month in outer space?
Manifold MarketsWill Jeff Bezos ever orbit or walk on the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill the US exit the Outer Space Treaty?
KalshiBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
PolymarketRules
The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until either of the criteria have been met.
- If Jeff Bezos spends at least 31 days consecutively above the Karmen Line (100 km altitude), then this market resolves YES.
- If he dies before this happens, this market resolves NO.
- For purposes of this market, “Jeff Bezos” is only Jeffrey Preston Bezos, founder of Amazon.com, born on January 12, 1964.
- I will not bet in this market.
- Related markets: @/jks/will-jeff-bezos-spend-a-day-in-oute @/jks/will-jeff-bezos-spend-a-week-in-out @/jks/will-jeff-bezos-spend-a-month-in-ou (this market) @/jks/will-jeff-bezos-spend-a-year-in-out
Open markets
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.5M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.7%
- 200-219+8.0pt23.1%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.2%
+23 more outcomes
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+7.0pt33.6%
- 90° or above+18.0pt32.7%
- 86° to 87°-13.0pt23.1%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Houston+69.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Los Angeles+71.0pt75%
+19 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $229.5K
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 65-89+29.0pt50%
- 40-64+0.5pt46.1%
- 90-114-2.9pt3.9%
+7 more outcomes
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- Highest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- Next James Bond actor?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Jeff Bezos spend a month in outer space??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Jeff Bezos spend a month in outer space? resolve?
- Will Jeff Bezos spend a month in outer space? is scheduled to resolve on March 29, 2054.
- How is Will Jeff Bezos spend a month in outer space? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: The close date is arbitrary; either I or a moderator will extend the close date as needed until either of the criteria have been met.