Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 80.1%
Forecasters
115
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleAug 15, 23, 12:55 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Jean-François Gariépy be arrested for any reason by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk be arrested in the US before 2034?
Manifold MarketsWill Benjamin Netanyahu ever be arrested, detained or face trial for war crimes?
Manifold MarketsWho will be arrested in 2026?
KalshiHasan Piker arrested in 2026?
PolymarketWho will be arrested before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Total Vol
- $11.4M
- 24h Vol
- $21K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-4.0pt17%
- 2026+0.2pt5%
- Total Vol
- $585.2K
- 24h Vol
- $7.1K
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+5.5pt70.3%
- Yes-5.5pt29.7%
- Total Vol
- $410.6K
- 24h Vol
- $6.6K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 3128%
- October 31+0.5pt13%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+0.5pt42.2%
- 60++3.0pt39.2%
- 20–40+3.0pt10.8%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIWho will be arrested in 2026?
- John Brennan-2.0pt22%
- Mahmoud Khalil-1.0pt16%
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero+2.0pt15%
+21 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Who will be arrested before 2027?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026?
- Any Brazil STF Justice removed by impeachment before 2027?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 80% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason by the end of 2030? resolve?
- Will Elon Musk be arrested for any reason by the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.