Will frontier AI effective training compute increase by a factor 10 billion between 2025 and 2035?
AIOne-Off8y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 5:41 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 70.5%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingFeb 15, 25, 4:08 PM UTCJan 1, 35, 10:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves as YES if the effective compute involved in the training of frontier AI models increases by a factor of a least 10 billion between January 1st 2025 and January 1st 2035.
- In the context of this question, we follow the definitions proposed by Epoch AI, where effective compute is defined as the composite of algorithmic progress and compute scaling ("algorithmic progress decreases the pretraining cost of AI").
- [image]Links:
- https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1890530253866422525/photo/1
- https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/algorithmic-progress-likely-spurs-more-spending-on-compute-not-less
