Will direct passenger ferry service between mainland Taiwan and mainland China resume by end of 2026?”
ChinaOne-Off2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 91.1%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleApr 5, 26, 8:44 PM UTCDec 30, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Land Bridge built connecting PRC (mainland) and Taiwan (Main Island) through 2040
Manifold MarketsBridge built connecting PRC (mainland) and Taiwan (Main Island) through 2040
Manifold MarketsWill a crossing of the Qiongzhou Strait, between Mainland China and Hainan, have started construction by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill Blizzard games still be legally available in Mainland China at the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill North Korea resume its nuclear tests in 2026?
FutuurWhen will Big Bend border construction resume?
LimitlessRules
The only direct ferry link between Taiwan proper and mainland China was the Pingtan-Taichung/Taipei service, running from 2011 until COVID suspension in February 2020.
- It has not resumed since.
- The Mini Three Links ferries (Kinmen/Matsu to Fujian) do not count for this question.
- In April 2026, KMT chair Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) is visiting China for talks with Chinese leadership, raising the question of whether any tangible cross-strait concessions will follow.
- Resolves YES if any direct passenger ferry between a port on Taiwan proper and a port on mainland China completes at least one sailing before January 1, 2027, with approval from Taiwan’s government.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
