Will civilizational-preservation bunkers get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?
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Current community forecastYes 62%
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LaggingOct 30, 23, 6:42 PM UTCJan 2, 30, 6:59 AM UTC
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To resolve this question, in 2030 I will look at publicly-available grantmaking documentation (like this Openphil website, for example), adding up all the grants between October 2023 and January 2030 that support civilizational bunker projects, and resolve YES if the grand total exceeds ten million US dollars.
- See this EA Forum tag for what I mean by "civilizational bunker" -- if the eventual plan ends up being a network of nuclear submarines or something rather than one giant traditional underground bunker, that still counts.
- But the intent has to be for people to live in the refuge; civilizational-resillience efforts that merely preserve information/technology/etc, like the Svalbard Global Seed Vault or the Lunar Library, don't count.
- "EA funders" means places like OpenPhil, LTFF, SFF, Longview Philanthropy, Founders Fund, GiveWell, ACX Grants, etc. Some example "EA-adjacent" funding sources that wouldn't count, even if their money goes directly to this cause area: Patrick Collison, Yuri Milner, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Elon Musk, Vitalik Buterin, Peter Thiel.
- This is obviously a fuzzy distinction (what if one of the aforementioned billionares becomes noticeably more EA-influenced by 2030? etc), but I'll try my best to resolve the question in the spirit of reflecting how the EA community has grown over time.
- For markets about other cause-area-candidates (like charter cities and climate geoengineering!), check out the "New EA Cause Area?" tag!
