Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 56.9%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleApr 8, 26, 2:20 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will China October 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 80 tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill China October 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 20 tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 80 tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes?
Manifold MarketsTaipei Mayor Election Winner
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if China October 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceeds 50 tonnes.
- What is being measured: China monthly Sm2O3 export volume (GACC data) for the month ending October 2027, settled 2 months later to allow for GACC reporting lag.
- YES if: China Sm2O3 monthly export volume >= 50 tonnes for October 2027 NO if: Export volume below 50 tonnes
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- GACC (General Administration of Customs, China) monthly trade data — HS 2846.90
- Asian Metal — China rare earth export monthly tracker (asianmetal.com)
