Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?
ChinaOne-Off2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 25, 2026, 8:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastYes 70.1%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 5:53 PM UTCMay 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Century Aluminum's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 0.7 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Norsk Hydro's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 2.0 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Hindalco Industries's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 1.4 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill Rio Tinto's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 3.4 million tonnes?
Manifold MarketsXi Jinping out before 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market resolves YES if China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 6.4 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- China Hongqiao is the world's largest single primary aluminum producer. 2024 capacity 6.46 Mt; constrained by China's 45 Mt national smelter cap.
- The 6.4 Mt strike for 2028 reflects the run-rate; absent capacity-cap relaxation in Beijing's 15th Five-Year Plan, sustained output above this level requires utilisation gains rather than new capacity.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- China Hongqiao Group annual results announcement (HKEx 1378) http://en.hongqiaochina.com/