Data quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 23, 2026, 11:42 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecast
No 93%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 18, 25, 6:25 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Will a Chinese-made sub-7nm chip (e.g., 5nm process node), fabricated using domestically developed EUV lithography, be deployed to run production workloads (such as AI training or inference) for a major Chinese tech company (e.g., Huawei, Alibaba, Tencent, or Baidu) by December 31, 2026?
- Resolution Details
- This prediction resolves YES if, by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026, credible public evidence confirms all of the following:
- A semiconductor chip is produced at a sub-7nm process node (strictly smaller than 7nm, such as 5nm, 3nm, or finer; 7nm does not qualify).
- The chip is fabricated entirely in China using extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology developed domestically, without reliance on foreign EUV machines (e.g., no ASML tools for the EUV steps).
- Hybrid or smuggled foreign tech does not count—must be verifiably Chinese-origin EUV.
