Current community forecast
No 85.7%
Forecasters
15
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 23 hours ago
StaleMar 25, 25, 5:23 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Futuur[Metaculus] Will a Chinese firm make a large order of domestic AI chips before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves yes if China is able to produce <= 3 nm chips at a ~70% yield rate.
- Will settle to credible sources, such as SemiAnalysis reports.
- Company press reports would not count.
- Considerations
- "Yield rate" refers to the percentage of functioning chips produced from each silicon wafer.
- A 70% yield rate is considered reasonably good for semiconductor manufacturing.
