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Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027?

Regulation AIOne-OffTech3mo

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 86.6%

Forecasters

13

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 7 hours ago

Stale

Mar 18, 26, 4:26 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

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Rules

Resolution criteria

This market resolves YES if a major tech company (defined as a company with market capitalization exceeding $100 billion or annual revenue exceeding $50 billion) publicly announces a pause or meaningful limitation on AI development activities due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027.
The announcement must explicitly cite safety as the primary reason and involve a concrete action (e.g., halting training of specific models, delaying product releases, or reducing AI R&D investment).
Statements about "prioritizing safety" or implementing safety measures without pausing development do not qualify.
Resolution sources include official company announcements, SEC filings, press releases, and statements from company leadership reported by major news outlets.
As of July 2024, a pause on AI development has not been realized—instead, AI companies have directed "vast investments in infrastructure to train ever-more giant AI systems".

Open markets

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Total Vol

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027??: Manifold Markets prices Yes at 87% as of September 8, 2026.
When does Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027? resolve?: Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
How is Will a major tech company publicly pause or limit AI development due to safety concerns before January 1, 2027? settled?: Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria

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