Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?
ChinaOne-OffCommoditiesBusiness & Corporate2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 76.2%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleMay 4, 26, 5:53 PM UTCMay 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco, 2600.HK)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 6.4 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco). 2024 production ~6 Mt (+6.76% YoY); new Yunnan green smelter commissioned.
- The 6.4 Mt strike for 2028 sits near 2027's run-rate; further commissioning announced for 2026–27 could lift 2028 above this strike, making this a probability-anchored at or slightly above 50%.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- Chalco annual results announcement (HKEx 2600 / SSE 601600) https://www.chalco.com.cn/en/tzzgxen/yjbgen/
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 76% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes? resolve?
- Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes? is scheduled to resolve on May 31, 2029.
- How is Will Chalco's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco, 2600.HK)'s primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 6.4 million tonnes.
