Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 78%
Forecasters
0
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMar 30, 26, 9:43 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 80 kt?
Manifold MarketsWill Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 65 kt?
Manifold MarketsWill Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 100 kt?
Manifold MarketsWill Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 30 kt
Manifold MarketsRules
This market resolves YES if Brazil's trailing 6-month ferroniobium export volume exceeds 50 kt on December 31, 2026.
- What is being measured: Cumulative Brazilian exports of ferroniobium (HS 7202.93) to all global destinations, in kilotonnes, for the 6-month period ending 3 months before December 31, 2026.
- The 3-month lag ensures MDIC/Siscomex data has been published for all months in the window.
- Measurement window:
- Settlement June 30: October (prior year) – March (current year) total
- Settlement December 31: April – September (current year) total
Open markets
Latin America
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt55.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.5pt42.6%
- Renan Santos-0.1pt1%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $145.1M
- 24h Vol
- $526.7K
POLYMARKETTrump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- December 3110%
- September 306%
- Total Vol
- $75.1K
- 24h Vol
- $75.1K
KALSHIBrazil Presidential election winner?
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+1.0pt51.9%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.0pt40.7%
- Jair Bolsonaro+2.0pt2.8%
+11 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.0pt91%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.1pt7%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+15 more outcomes
KALSHIMercyhurst vs New Mexico
- New Mexico+1.0pt99%
- Mercyhurst-1.0pt1%
- Total Vol
- $34K
- 24h Vol
- $18K
KALSHIWhat countries will Trump say in September?
- Colombia / Colombian99%
- Australia / Australian99%
- Afghanistan / Afghan99%
+36 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $37.9K
- 24h Vol
- $10.7K
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round Winner
- Zacatecas Governor Election Winner
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
- Argentina Monthly Inflation - August
- Benin vs. Argentina
- São Paulo Governor Election Winner
- Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 9?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 50 kt??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 78% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 50 kt? resolve?
- Will Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 50 kt? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will Brazil's April–September 2026 ferroniobium exports exceed 50 kt? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves YES if Brazil's trailing 6-month ferroniobium export volume exceeds 50 kt on December 31, 2026.